Proceed with caution: ‘Friendshoring’ transition minerals for ASEAN’s energy transition
Civil society, communities, and experts gather at the 2nd Congress on Transition Minerals in Quezon City, Philippines, to demand for a just minerals transition. Credit: Karl Santos / LRC.
Mining is needed to propel the transition to renewable energy. But this is not a blanket permission for companies and governments to combat the climate crisis only to deface the earth.
LRC, along with other communities and groups across the world, abides by the idea of ‘indispensable extraction’, or mining only what is essential for a nation’s wellbeing. This can include supporting a country’s energy transition. But not mining for gold, which is mostly used in jewelry, an obvious luxury in a world of need.
This can be extended to the idea of friendshoring, or sharing mineral wealth to help partner countries achieve their climate targets. LRC distinguishes this from a friendshoring arrangement that ultimately serves the security and defense infrastructures of powerful and competing countries.
LRC teased this idea at the First Congress on Transition Minerals in 2025, when we shared that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) does not need to pursue new mines or processing facilities to harness metals needed for a 1.5°C-aligned energy system.
Based on LRC’s calculations, ASEAN can already mine the metals needed for the transition, at current production rates: 3.25 years for copper, just 6 weeks for rare earths, and as short as 3 weeks for nickel. Existing processing facilities will be able to fill ASEAN’s decarbonization requirements.
The intra-regional trade of transition minerals between ASEAN members should be anchored in a justice-based friendshoring framework, as shown below:
This framework should be defined by need and must spread benefits across society. It shall use mineral wealth to help ASEAN member states to achieve their domestic energy transition, in line with their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The rights of communities and the protection of nature shall be observed in this transition.
LRC recommends several strategies to foster friendshoring in the ASEAN:
At the 2nd Congress on Transition Minerals, held on 27-28 October 2026 in Quezon City, LRC invited experts from across Southeast Asia to weigh in on the above-mentioned strategies.
For the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), represented by Nathania Azalia, ASEAN can reduce emissions and strengthen energy security through coordinated energy planning, efficiency, electrification, renewable energy, and regional electricity connections.
Nathania Azalia of the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE). Credit: Karl Santos/LRC.
ACE’s latest energy outlook found that ASEAN's power capacity is projected to reach 3,300 gigawatts, with renewables playing 62% in that mix, with solar, wind, and hydropower playing a dominant role.
ACE presented three scenarios for an ASEAN transition. The first is the baseline in which existing trends continue. The second is ASEAN Members States Target Scenario where countries progress toward their expressed targets.
Finally, there is the ASEAN Coordinated Transition Scenario (ACTS). Here, countries can strengthen regional coordination while retaining flexibility for nationally appropriate transitions.
ACE emphasizes understanding the relationship between ASEAN's energy pathways and its critical mineral resources.
To facilitate the energy transition, ACE said data sharing should be strengthened, and evidence-based insights within ASEAN is essential, which can enhance regional cooperation and inform future mineral requirements for energy development.
ACE also strongly advocated for the need to expand renewable energy, strengthen electricity-grid flexibility, improve industrial and transport efficiency, and manage rapidly growing data-centre electricity demand.
Andri Prasetiyo, from the Senik Centre Asia, based in Indonesia, said that friendshoring could strengthen ASEAN’s role in transition-mineral value chains, but it will not be transformative without diversified ownership, technology, finance, and markets.
Andri Prasetiyo, from the Senik Centre Asia.. Credit: Karl Santos/LRC.
For him, the key question is whether ASEAN can capture more value while avoiding new
fossil-fuel dependence and unequal relationships with external powers. There is the possibility that ASEAN risks becoming a “West, China +1” production platform rather than developing genuine regional autonomy.
Prasetiyo also noted that measures such as export bans and production quotas, if adopted, need to be carefully designed and managed to minimise unintended consequences for global prices and supply chains. This requires effective policy coordination between producing countries and a balance between domestic value creation and regional supply-chain stability.
He also shared that nickel processing in Indonesia has reinforced coal dependence, with around 17 GW of operating captive coal capacity associated with the sector. He stressed the need to green the sector to reduce emissions, address environmental impacts on local communities, and create greater value from downstream processing.
His fears were shared by Nachatira Thuraichamy of the Climate Action Network Southeast Asia (CANSEA), based in Malaysia. She raised a number of questions that must be answered by friendshoring, including:
Does the technical analysis establish mineral sufficiency for the entire energy transition?
Can ASEAN deliver the governance and accountability that regional friendshoring requires?
Can regional resource sufficiency withstand national development ambitions, including data-center growth?
Nachatira Thuraichamy of the Climate Action Network Southeast Asia (CANSEA). Credit: Karl Santos / LRC.
Meanwhile, Dr. Genalyn Aquino-Arcayera, from IDEALS in the Philippines, emphasized the need to navigate through legal trade restrictions for friendshoring. For her, regional mineral cooperation is possible, but its legal design matters.
Friendshoring is legally compatible with at least two major ASEAN trade instruments, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACTFA). Joint investment in renewable energy and mineral-processing facilities is compatible with these agreements.
The legally sensitive areas are: 1) Preferential tariffs exclusively for geopolitical allies; 2) Mineral export bans intended to force domestic processing; and 3) excluding certain firms from ASEAN mineral projects solely because of nationality.
Dr. Genalyn Aquino-Arcayera of IDEALS. Credit: Karl Santos / LRC.
For Aquino-Arcayera, ASEAN should pursue industrial cooperation and shared investment without assuming that every geopolitical preference or trade restriction is automatically permissible.
At the end of the discussion, the following main points were identified for supporting friendshoring:
Prioritize sufficiency and circularity: Assess actual mineral needs, reduce unnecessary extraction and expand recycling.
Strengthen justice and accountability: Protect affected communities and ecosystems, improve participation, and ensure that benefits are fairly distributed.
Build equitable regional cooperation: Develop shared energy and industrial strategies that reduce fossil-fuel dependence, diversify economic relationships and comply with trade obligations.
These recommendations mirror and expand on the concept of a just minerals transition, the elements of which were identified by LRC a paper in 2023.
Friendshoring is one of many paths toward collective bargaining power, social and environmental protections, and accountability in the transition minerals space. This strategic realignment, when anchored in justice, could pave the way for systemic transformation.
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